Serie A projection
Where every Serie A team is projected to finish in 2026-27, from 20,000 simulated seasons of the fixtures that are left.
Updated on 19 October 2026. Table and results from ESPN.
20Teams
68Matches played
312Matches left
20,000Simulations
- Champions League
- Europa League
- Conference League
- Mid-table
- Relegation
Table
1
Internazionale
19
7
+12
WWDWW
84.9
2
Lazio
19
7
+10
WDWWW
71.1
3
AS Roma
17
7
+13
WWDDW
80.8
4
AC Milan
15
7
+7
DDWDW
69.5
5
Como
14
7
+5
WWLDW
72.2
6
Cagliari
13
6
+3
LWWWD
55.2
7
Frosinone
13
7
+4
WDWLW
48.5
8
Juventus
11
7
+1
DLWDL
63.0
9
Napoli
10
7
+3
LWDWL
62.0
10
Atalanta
9
7
-1
LLLWL
55.7
11
Lecce
9
7
-3
LWLLW
41.1
12
Sassuolo
8
7
-2
DWLDL
47.9
13
Torino
7
6
-2
LWLDW
43.7
14
Bologna
5
7
-4
DLDWL
45.2
15
Monza
4
6
-6
LDLWL
32.1
16
Parma
4
6
-6
LDLWL
34.2
17
Udinese
4
7
-7
LLLLL
40.2
18
Genoa
4
7
-8
LDLWL
36.2
19
Fiorentina
4
7
-9
LWDLL
36.0
20
Venezia
3
7
-10
LLLLW
26.6
Distribution
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internazionale, position 1: 48% | Internazionale, position 2: 23% | Internazionale, position 3: 12% | Internazionale, position 4: 7% | Internazionale, position 5: 4% | Internazionale, position 6: 2% | Internazionale, position 7: 1% | Internazionale, position 8: 1% | Internazionale, position 9: 0% | Internazionale, position 10: 0% | Internazionale, position 11: 0% | Internazionale, position 12: 0% | Internazionale, position 13: 0% | Internazionale, position 14: 0% | Internazionale, position 15: 0% | Internazionale, position 16: 0% | Internazionale, position 17: 0% | Internazionale, position 18: 0% | Internazionale, position 19: 0% | Internazionale, position 20: 0% | |
| Lazio, position 1: 7% | Lazio, position 2: 12% | Lazio, position 3: 16% | Lazio, position 4: 17% | Lazio, position 5: 15% | Lazio, position 6: 11% | Lazio, position 7: 8% | Lazio, position 8: 6% | Lazio, position 9: 4% | Lazio, position 10: 2% | Lazio, position 11: 1% | Lazio, position 12: 1% | Lazio, position 13: 0% | Lazio, position 14: 0% | Lazio, position 15: 0% | Lazio, position 16: 0% | Lazio, position 17: 0% | Lazio, position 18: 0% | Lazio, position 19: 0% | Lazio, position 20: 0% | |
| AS Roma, position 1: 27% | AS Roma, position 2: 29% | AS Roma, position 3: 18% | AS Roma, position 4: 11% | AS Roma, position 5: 7% | AS Roma, position 6: 4% | AS Roma, position 7: 2% | AS Roma, position 8: 1% | AS Roma, position 9: 1% | AS Roma, position 10: 0% | AS Roma, position 11: 0% | AS Roma, position 12: 0% | AS Roma, position 13: 0% | AS Roma, position 14: 0% | AS Roma, position 15: 0% | AS Roma, position 16: 0% | AS Roma, position 17: 0% | AS Roma, position 18: 0% | AS Roma, position 19: 0% | AS Roma, position 20: 0% | |
| AC Milan, position 1: 6% | AC Milan, position 2: 10% | AC Milan, position 3: 15% | AC Milan, position 4: 15% | AC Milan, position 5: 15% | AC Milan, position 6: 12% | AC Milan, position 7: 9% | AC Milan, position 8: 7% | AC Milan, position 9: 4% | AC Milan, position 10: 3% | AC Milan, position 11: 2% | AC Milan, position 12: 1% | AC Milan, position 13: 1% | AC Milan, position 14: 0% | AC Milan, position 15: 0% | AC Milan, position 16: 0% | AC Milan, position 17: 0% | AC Milan, position 18: 0% | AC Milan, position 19: 0% | AC Milan, position 20: 0% | |
| Como, position 1: 8% | Como, position 2: 14% | Como, position 3: 18% | Como, position 4: 17% | Como, position 5: 13% | Como, position 6: 10% | Como, position 7: 7% | Como, position 8: 5% | Como, position 9: 3% | Como, position 10: 2% | Como, position 11: 1% | Como, position 12: 1% | Como, position 13: 0% | Como, position 14: 0% | Como, position 15: 0% | Como, position 16: 0% | Como, position 17: 0% | Como, position 18: 0% | Como, position 19: 0% | Como, position 20: 0% | |
| Cagliari, position 1: 0% | Cagliari, position 2: 1% | Cagliari, position 3: 2% | Cagliari, position 4: 4% | Cagliari, position 5: 6% | Cagliari, position 6: 8% | Cagliari, position 7: 10% | Cagliari, position 8: 12% | Cagliari, position 9: 12% | Cagliari, position 10: 11% | Cagliari, position 11: 9% | Cagliari, position 12: 7% | Cagliari, position 13: 6% | Cagliari, position 14: 4% | Cagliari, position 15: 3% | Cagliari, position 16: 2% | Cagliari, position 17: 1% | Cagliari, position 18: 1% | Cagliari, position 19: 0% | Cagliari, position 20: 0% | |
| Frosinone, position 1: 0% | Frosinone, position 2: 0% | Frosinone, position 3: 1% | Frosinone, position 4: 1% | Frosinone, position 5: 2% | Frosinone, position 6: 4% | Frosinone, position 7: 6% | Frosinone, position 8: 8% | Frosinone, position 9: 9% | Frosinone, position 10: 10% | Frosinone, position 11: 10% | Frosinone, position 12: 10% | Frosinone, position 13: 9% | Frosinone, position 14: 8% | Frosinone, position 15: 7% | Frosinone, position 16: 5% | Frosinone, position 17: 4% | Frosinone, position 18: 3% | Frosinone, position 19: 2% | Frosinone, position 20: 1% | |
| Juventus, position 1: 2% | Juventus, position 2: 4% | Juventus, position 3: 7% | Juventus, position 4: 10% | Juventus, position 5: 12% | Juventus, position 6: 14% | Juventus, position 7: 13% | Juventus, position 8: 11% | Juventus, position 9: 8% | Juventus, position 10: 6% | Juventus, position 11: 5% | Juventus, position 12: 3% | Juventus, position 13: 2% | Juventus, position 14: 1% | Juventus, position 15: 1% | Juventus, position 16: 0% | Juventus, position 17: 0% | Juventus, position 18: 0% | Juventus, position 19: 0% | Juventus, position 20: 0% | |
| Napoli, position 1: 1% | Napoli, position 2: 4% | Napoli, position 3: 7% | Napoli, position 4: 10% | Napoli, position 5: 12% | Napoli, position 6: 13% | Napoli, position 7: 13% | Napoli, position 8: 11% | Napoli, position 9: 9% | Napoli, position 10: 6% | Napoli, position 11: 5% | Napoli, position 12: 3% | Napoli, position 13: 2% | Napoli, position 14: 2% | Napoli, position 15: 1% | Napoli, position 16: 1% | Napoli, position 17: 0% | Napoli, position 18: 0% | Napoli, position 19: 0% | Napoli, position 20: 0% | |
| Atalanta, position 1: 0% | Atalanta, position 2: 1% | Atalanta, position 3: 3% | Atalanta, position 4: 5% | Atalanta, position 5: 7% | Atalanta, position 6: 9% | Atalanta, position 7: 10% | Atalanta, position 8: 12% | Atalanta, position 9: 11% | Atalanta, position 10: 10% | Atalanta, position 11: 8% | Atalanta, position 12: 7% | Atalanta, position 13: 5% | Atalanta, position 14: 4% | Atalanta, position 15: 3% | Atalanta, position 16: 2% | Atalanta, position 17: 1% | Atalanta, position 18: 1% | Atalanta, position 19: 0% | Atalanta, position 20: 0% | |
| Lecce, position 1: 0% | Lecce, position 2: 0% | Lecce, position 3: 0% | Lecce, position 4: 0% | Lecce, position 5: 0% | Lecce, position 6: 1% | Lecce, position 7: 2% | Lecce, position 8: 3% | Lecce, position 9: 4% | Lecce, position 10: 6% | Lecce, position 11: 7% | Lecce, position 12: 9% | Lecce, position 13: 10% | Lecce, position 14: 11% | Lecce, position 15: 11% | Lecce, position 16: 10% | Lecce, position 17: 9% | Lecce, position 18: 8% | Lecce, position 19: 6% | Lecce, position 20: 3% | |
| Sassuolo, position 1: 0% | Sassuolo, position 2: 0% | Sassuolo, position 3: 1% | Sassuolo, position 4: 1% | Sassuolo, position 5: 3% | Sassuolo, position 6: 4% | Sassuolo, position 7: 6% | Sassuolo, position 8: 7% | Sassuolo, position 9: 8% | Sassuolo, position 10: 10% | Sassuolo, position 11: 10% | Sassuolo, position 12: 10% | Sassuolo, position 13: 9% | Sassuolo, position 14: 8% | Sassuolo, position 15: 6% | Sassuolo, position 16: 6% | Sassuolo, position 17: 5% | Sassuolo, position 18: 3% | Sassuolo, position 19: 2% | Sassuolo, position 20: 1% | |
| Torino, position 1: 0% | Torino, position 2: 0% | Torino, position 3: 0% | Torino, position 4: 1% | Torino, position 5: 1% | Torino, position 6: 2% | Torino, position 7: 4% | Torino, position 8: 5% | Torino, position 9: 6% | Torino, position 10: 7% | Torino, position 11: 8% | Torino, position 12: 9% | Torino, position 13: 10% | Torino, position 14: 9% | Torino, position 15: 9% | Torino, position 16: 8% | Torino, position 17: 7% | Torino, position 18: 6% | Torino, position 19: 4% | Torino, position 20: 3% | |
| Bologna, position 1: 0% | Bologna, position 2: 0% | Bologna, position 3: 0% | Bologna, position 4: 1% | Bologna, position 5: 1% | Bologna, position 6: 3% | Bologna, position 7: 4% | Bologna, position 8: 5% | Bologna, position 9: 7% | Bologna, position 10: 9% | Bologna, position 11: 10% | Bologna, position 12: 10% | Bologna, position 13: 10% | Bologna, position 14: 9% | Bologna, position 15: 8% | Bologna, position 16: 7% | Bologna, position 17: 6% | Bologna, position 18: 5% | Bologna, position 19: 3% | Bologna, position 20: 2% | |
| Monza, position 1: 0% | Monza, position 2: 0% | Monza, position 3: 0% | Monza, position 4: 0% | Monza, position 5: 0% | Monza, position 6: 0% | Monza, position 7: 0% | Monza, position 8: 1% | Monza, position 9: 1% | Monza, position 10: 2% | Monza, position 11: 3% | Monza, position 12: 4% | Monza, position 13: 5% | Monza, position 14: 6% | Monza, position 15: 7% | Monza, position 16: 9% | Monza, position 17: 11% | Monza, position 18: 14% | Monza, position 19: 17% | Monza, position 20: 19% | |
| Parma, position 1: 0% | Parma, position 2: 0% | Parma, position 3: 0% | Parma, position 4: 0% | Parma, position 5: 0% | Parma, position 6: 0% | Parma, position 7: 0% | Parma, position 8: 1% | Parma, position 9: 2% | Parma, position 10: 2% | Parma, position 11: 3% | Parma, position 12: 5% | Parma, position 13: 6% | Parma, position 14: 8% | Parma, position 15: 9% | Parma, position 16: 11% | Parma, position 17: 13% | Parma, position 18: 14% | Parma, position 19: 14% | Parma, position 20: 11% | |
| Udinese, position 1: 0% | Udinese, position 2: 0% | Udinese, position 3: 0% | Udinese, position 4: 0% | Udinese, position 5: 1% | Udinese, position 6: 1% | Udinese, position 7: 2% | Udinese, position 8: 3% | Udinese, position 9: 4% | Udinese, position 10: 6% | Udinese, position 11: 7% | Udinese, position 12: 8% | Udinese, position 13: 9% | Udinese, position 14: 9% | Udinese, position 15: 10% | Udinese, position 16: 10% | Udinese, position 17: 9% | Udinese, position 18: 9% | Udinese, position 19: 7% | Udinese, position 20: 5% | |
| Genoa, position 1: 0% | Genoa, position 2: 0% | Genoa, position 3: 0% | Genoa, position 4: 0% | Genoa, position 5: 0% | Genoa, position 6: 0% | Genoa, position 7: 1% | Genoa, position 8: 1% | Genoa, position 9: 2% | Genoa, position 10: 3% | Genoa, position 11: 5% | Genoa, position 12: 6% | Genoa, position 13: 8% | Genoa, position 14: 9% | Genoa, position 15: 10% | Genoa, position 16: 11% | Genoa, position 17: 12% | Genoa, position 18: 12% | Genoa, position 19: 12% | Genoa, position 20: 9% | |
| Fiorentina, position 1: 0% | Fiorentina, position 2: 0% | Fiorentina, position 3: 0% | Fiorentina, position 4: 0% | Fiorentina, position 5: 0% | Fiorentina, position 6: 1% | Fiorentina, position 7: 1% | Fiorentina, position 8: 2% | Fiorentina, position 9: 2% | Fiorentina, position 10: 3% | Fiorentina, position 11: 5% | Fiorentina, position 12: 6% | Fiorentina, position 13: 7% | Fiorentina, position 14: 8% | Fiorentina, position 15: 10% | Fiorentina, position 16: 11% | Fiorentina, position 17: 11% | Fiorentina, position 18: 12% | Fiorentina, position 19: 12% | Fiorentina, position 20: 10% | |
| Venezia, position 1: 0% | Venezia, position 2: 0% | Venezia, position 3: 0% | Venezia, position 4: 0% | Venezia, position 5: 0% | Venezia, position 6: 0% | Venezia, position 7: 0% | Venezia, position 8: 0% | Venezia, position 9: 0% | Venezia, position 10: 0% | Venezia, position 11: 1% | Venezia, position 12: 1% | Venezia, position 13: 2% | Venezia, position 14: 3% | Venezia, position 15: 4% | Venezia, position 16: 7% | Venezia, position 17: 9% | Venezia, position 18: 14% | Venezia, position 19: 20% | Venezia, position 20: 38% |
Read a row from left to right: how likely that team is to finish in each position. The colour says what the position is worth.
How this is calculated
Each team gets a strength from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, blended with last season, and then every remaining fixture is played out 20,000 times. The percentages are how often each finish came up.
These are simulated probabilities, not betting odds and not predictions of individual matches. A 5% chance still happens one season in twenty.