MLS projection
Where every MLS team is projected to finish in 2026, from 20,000 simulated seasons of the fixtures that are left.
Updated on 2 September 2026. Table and results from ESPN.
30Teams
329Matches played
181Matches left
20,000Simulations
- Playoffs
- Wild card
- Mid-table
Eastern Conference
Table
1
Nashville SC
52
22
+30
DWWWW
76.2
Nashville SC
52
22
+30
DWWWW
76.2
2
Inter Miami CF
42
22
+15
DLDLW
63.3
Inter Miami CF
42
22
+15
DLDLW
63.3
3
Chicago Fire FC
37
21
+11
WWWDD
57.0
Chicago Fire FC
37
21
+11
WWWDD
57.0
4
New England Revolution
37
22
+9
LLWDW
54.4
New England Revolution
37
22
+9
LLWDW
54.4
5
Charlotte FC
35
22
+8
LWDWW
54.3
Charlotte FC
35
22
+8
LWDWW
54.3
6
FC Cincinnati
31
22
-2
WDWDL
48.6
FC Cincinnati
31
22
-2
WDWDL
48.6
7
New York City FC
28
22
+5
DLLDD
46.3
New York City FC
28
22
+5
DLLDD
46.3
8
Red Bull New York
26
22
-14
WLLDL
39.0
Red Bull New York
26
22
-14
WLLDL
39.0
9
Orlando City SC
25
22
-17
LDLWD
39.7
Orlando City SC
25
22
-17
LDLWD
39.7
10
Toronto FC
25
22
-6
DWDWD
39.8
Toronto FC
25
22
-6
DWDWD
39.8
11
D.C. United
25
22
-8
DDLLD
37.1
D.C. United
25
22
-8
DDLLD
37.1
12
Philadelphia Union
24
22
-5
WWDDW
41.9
Philadelphia Union
24
22
-5
WWDDW
41.9
13
Atlanta United FC
21
22
-13
LWWWL
33.2
Atlanta United FC
21
22
-13
LWWWL
33.2
14
CF Montréal
21
22
-16
DDWDL
31.7
CF Montréal
21
22
-16
DDWDL
31.7
15
Columbus Crew
20
22
-8
DLLLL
36.3
Columbus Crew
20
22
-8
DLLLL
36.3
Distribution
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | Nashville SC, position 1: 95% | Nashville SC, position 2: 5% | Nashville SC, position 3: 0% | Nashville SC, position 4: 0% | Nashville SC, position 5: 0% | Nashville SC, position 6: 0% | Nashville SC, position 7: 0% | Nashville SC, position 8: 0% | Nashville SC, position 9: 0% | Nashville SC, position 10: 0% | Nashville SC, position 11: 0% | Nashville SC, position 12: 0% | Nashville SC, position 13: 0% | Nashville SC, position 14: 0% | Nashville SC, position 15: 0% |
| MIA | Inter Miami CF, position 1: 4% | Inter Miami CF, position 2: 62% | Inter Miami CF, position 3: 20% | Inter Miami CF, position 4: 8% | Inter Miami CF, position 5: 4% | Inter Miami CF, position 6: 1% | Inter Miami CF, position 7: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 8: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 9: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 10: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 11: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 12: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 13: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 14: 0% | Inter Miami CF, position 15: 0% |
| CHI | Chicago Fire FC, position 1: 1% | Chicago Fire FC, position 2: 16% | Chicago Fire FC, position 3: 32% | Chicago Fire FC, position 4: 22% | Chicago Fire FC, position 5: 16% | Chicago Fire FC, position 6: 8% | Chicago Fire FC, position 7: 3% | Chicago Fire FC, position 8: 1% | Chicago Fire FC, position 9: 0% | Chicago Fire FC, position 10: 0% | Chicago Fire FC, position 11: 0% | Chicago Fire FC, position 12: 0% | Chicago Fire FC, position 13: 0% | Chicago Fire FC, position 14: 0% | Chicago Fire FC, position 15: 0% |
| NE | New England Revolution, position 1: 0% | New England Revolution, position 2: 8% | New England Revolution, position 3: 21% | New England Revolution, position 4: 25% | New England Revolution, position 5: 23% | New England Revolution, position 6: 13% | New England Revolution, position 7: 7% | New England Revolution, position 8: 3% | New England Revolution, position 9: 1% | New England Revolution, position 10: 0% | New England Revolution, position 11: 0% | New England Revolution, position 12: 0% | New England Revolution, position 13: 0% | New England Revolution, position 14: 0% | New England Revolution, position 15: 0% |
| CLT | Charlotte FC, position 1: 0% | Charlotte FC, position 2: 8% | Charlotte FC, position 3: 20% | Charlotte FC, position 4: 26% | Charlotte FC, position 5: 22% | Charlotte FC, position 6: 13% | Charlotte FC, position 7: 6% | Charlotte FC, position 8: 3% | Charlotte FC, position 9: 1% | Charlotte FC, position 10: 0% | Charlotte FC, position 11: 0% | Charlotte FC, position 12: 0% | Charlotte FC, position 13: 0% | Charlotte FC, position 14: 0% | Charlotte FC, position 15: 0% |
| CIN | FC Cincinnati, position 1: 0% | FC Cincinnati, position 2: 1% | FC Cincinnati, position 3: 4% | FC Cincinnati, position 4: 10% | FC Cincinnati, position 5: 16% | FC Cincinnati, position 6: 23% | FC Cincinnati, position 7: 18% | FC Cincinnati, position 8: 12% | FC Cincinnati, position 9: 7% | FC Cincinnati, position 10: 4% | FC Cincinnati, position 11: 2% | FC Cincinnati, position 12: 1% | FC Cincinnati, position 13: 1% | FC Cincinnati, position 14: 0% | FC Cincinnati, position 15: 0% |
| NYC | New York City FC, position 1: 0% | New York City FC, position 2: 0% | New York City FC, position 3: 2% | New York City FC, position 4: 6% | New York City FC, position 5: 12% | New York City FC, position 6: 19% | New York City FC, position 7: 23% | New York City FC, position 8: 16% | New York City FC, position 9: 10% | New York City FC, position 10: 6% | New York City FC, position 11: 4% | New York City FC, position 12: 2% | New York City FC, position 13: 1% | New York City FC, position 14: 0% | New York City FC, position 15: 0% |
| RBNY | Red Bull New York, position 1: 0% | Red Bull New York, position 2: 0% | Red Bull New York, position 3: 0% | Red Bull New York, position 4: 0% | Red Bull New York, position 5: 1% | Red Bull New York, position 6: 3% | Red Bull New York, position 7: 6% | Red Bull New York, position 8: 9% | Red Bull New York, position 9: 13% | Red Bull New York, position 10: 15% | Red Bull New York, position 11: 15% | Red Bull New York, position 12: 14% | Red Bull New York, position 13: 12% | Red Bull New York, position 14: 9% | Red Bull New York, position 15: 4% |
| ORL | Orlando City SC, position 1: 0% | Orlando City SC, position 2: 0% | Orlando City SC, position 3: 0% | Orlando City SC, position 4: 1% | Orlando City SC, position 5: 2% | Orlando City SC, position 6: 4% | Orlando City SC, position 7: 8% | Orlando City SC, position 8: 11% | Orlando City SC, position 9: 13% | Orlando City SC, position 10: 13% | Orlando City SC, position 11: 13% | Orlando City SC, position 12: 12% | Orlando City SC, position 13: 11% | Orlando City SC, position 14: 8% | Orlando City SC, position 15: 4% |
| TOR | Toronto FC, position 1: 0% | Toronto FC, position 2: 0% | Toronto FC, position 3: 0% | Toronto FC, position 4: 0% | Toronto FC, position 5: 1% | Toronto FC, position 6: 4% | Toronto FC, position 7: 8% | Toronto FC, position 8: 13% | Toronto FC, position 9: 14% | Toronto FC, position 10: 15% | Toronto FC, position 11: 13% | Toronto FC, position 12: 12% | Toronto FC, position 13: 9% | Toronto FC, position 14: 7% | Toronto FC, position 15: 3% |
| DC | D.C. United, position 1: 0% | D.C. United, position 2: 0% | D.C. United, position 3: 0% | D.C. United, position 4: 0% | D.C. United, position 5: 0% | D.C. United, position 6: 2% | D.C. United, position 7: 4% | D.C. United, position 8: 6% | D.C. United, position 9: 9% | D.C. United, position 10: 12% | D.C. United, position 11: 14% | D.C. United, position 12: 16% | D.C. United, position 13: 16% | D.C. United, position 14: 13% | D.C. United, position 15: 7% |
| PHI | Philadelphia Union, position 1: 0% | Philadelphia Union, position 2: 0% | Philadelphia Union, position 3: 0% | Philadelphia Union, position 4: 1% | Philadelphia Union, position 5: 4% | Philadelphia Union, position 6: 8% | Philadelphia Union, position 7: 13% | Philadelphia Union, position 8: 17% | Philadelphia Union, position 9: 16% | Philadelphia Union, position 10: 13% | Philadelphia Union, position 11: 11% | Philadelphia Union, position 12: 7% | Philadelphia Union, position 13: 5% | Philadelphia Union, position 14: 3% | Philadelphia Union, position 15: 1% |
| ATL | Atlanta United FC, position 1: 0% | Atlanta United FC, position 2: 0% | Atlanta United FC, position 3: 0% | Atlanta United FC, position 4: 0% | Atlanta United FC, position 5: 0% | Atlanta United FC, position 6: 0% | Atlanta United FC, position 7: 1% | Atlanta United FC, position 8: 2% | Atlanta United FC, position 9: 4% | Atlanta United FC, position 10: 6% | Atlanta United FC, position 11: 8% | Atlanta United FC, position 12: 12% | Atlanta United FC, position 13: 16% | Atlanta United FC, position 14: 23% | Atlanta United FC, position 15: 28% |
| MTL | CF Montréal, position 1: 0% | CF Montréal, position 2: 0% | CF Montréal, position 3: 0% | CF Montréal, position 4: 0% | CF Montréal, position 5: 0% | CF Montréal, position 6: 0% | CF Montréal, position 7: 0% | CF Montréal, position 8: 1% | CF Montréal, position 9: 2% | CF Montréal, position 10: 3% | CF Montréal, position 11: 6% | CF Montréal, position 12: 9% | CF Montréal, position 13: 14% | CF Montréal, position 14: 23% | CF Montréal, position 15: 42% |
| CLB | Columbus Crew, position 1: 0% | Columbus Crew, position 2: 0% | Columbus Crew, position 3: 0% | Columbus Crew, position 4: 0% | Columbus Crew, position 5: 0% | Columbus Crew, position 6: 2% | Columbus Crew, position 7: 3% | Columbus Crew, position 8: 6% | Columbus Crew, position 9: 9% | Columbus Crew, position 10: 11% | Columbus Crew, position 11: 13% | Columbus Crew, position 12: 14% | Columbus Crew, position 13: 15% | Columbus Crew, position 14: 15% | Columbus Crew, position 15: 11% |
Read a row from left to right: how likely that team is to finish in each position. The colour says what the position is worth.
Western Conference
Table
1
Vancouver Whitecaps
43
21
+30
DWLWW
70.1
Vancouver Whitecaps
43
21
+30
DWLWW
70.1
2
Houston Dynamo FC
39
22
+4
WWWLD
55.4
Houston Dynamo FC
39
22
+4
WWWLD
55.4
3
LAFC
36
23
+14
DLLDD
55.7
LAFC
36
23
+14
DLLDD
55.7
4
San Jose Earthquakes
34
22
+6
LLLLD
50.6
San Jose Earthquakes
34
22
+6
LLLLD
50.6
5
FC Dallas
34
22
+4
DWWLD
53.5
FC Dallas
34
22
+4
DWWLD
53.5
6
St. Louis CITY SC
34
22
+3
DWDWD
49.2
St. Louis CITY SC
34
22
+3
DWDWD
49.2
7
Colorado Rapids
31
22
+3
WWWLW
47.1
Colorado Rapids
31
22
+3
WWWLW
47.1
8
San Diego FC
30
22
+7
DWLWW
49.7
San Diego FC
30
22
+7
DWLWW
49.7
9
Minnesota United FC
29
22
-2
DDLWD
46.9
Minnesota United FC
29
22
-2
DDLWD
46.9
10
Real Salt Lake
28
21
+1
DDLLL
45.3
Real Salt Lake
28
21
+1
DDLLL
45.3
11
Portland Timbers
28
22
0
WLWDL
45.5
Portland Timbers
28
22
0
WLWDL
45.5
12
Seattle Sounders FC
26
21
-5
LLLDD
43.9
Seattle Sounders FC
26
21
-5
LLLDD
43.9
13
LA Galaxy
26
23
-7
DLWDL
38.0
LA Galaxy
26
23
-7
DLWDL
38.0
14
Austin FC
24
22
-13
LLWDW
36.2
Austin FC
24
22
-13
LLWDW
36.2
15
Sporting Kansas City
15
22
-34
LLDLL
23.3
Sporting Kansas City
15
22
-34
LLDLL
23.3
Distribution
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 1: 95% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 2: 4% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 3: 1% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 4: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 5: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 6: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 7: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 8: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 9: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 10: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 11: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 12: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 13: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 14: 0% | Vancouver Whitecaps, position 15: 0% |
| HOU | Houston Dynamo FC, position 1: 1% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 2: 25% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 3: 20% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 4: 16% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 5: 12% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 6: 9% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 7: 6% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 8: 5% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 9: 3% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 10: 2% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 11: 1% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 12: 0% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 13: 0% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 14: 0% | Houston Dynamo FC, position 15: 0% |
| LAFC | LAFC, position 1: 2% | LAFC, position 2: 30% | LAFC, position 3: 24% | LAFC, position 4: 16% | LAFC, position 5: 11% | LAFC, position 6: 7% | LAFC, position 7: 4% | LAFC, position 8: 3% | LAFC, position 9: 2% | LAFC, position 10: 1% | LAFC, position 11: 0% | LAFC, position 12: 0% | LAFC, position 13: 0% | LAFC, position 14: 0% | LAFC, position 15: 0% |
| SJ | San Jose Earthquakes, position 1: 0% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 2: 8% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 3: 10% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 4: 11% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 5: 12% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 6: 11% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 7: 11% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 8: 10% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 9: 8% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 10: 7% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 11: 6% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 12: 3% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 13: 1% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 14: 0% | San Jose Earthquakes, position 15: 0% |
| DAL | FC Dallas, position 1: 1% | FC Dallas, position 2: 18% | FC Dallas, position 3: 17% | FC Dallas, position 4: 15% | FC Dallas, position 5: 13% | FC Dallas, position 6: 11% | FC Dallas, position 7: 8% | FC Dallas, position 8: 6% | FC Dallas, position 9: 5% | FC Dallas, position 10: 3% | FC Dallas, position 11: 2% | FC Dallas, position 12: 1% | FC Dallas, position 13: 0% | FC Dallas, position 14: 0% | FC Dallas, position 15: 0% |
| STL | St. Louis CITY SC, position 1: 0% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 2: 4% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 3: 6% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 4: 9% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 5: 10% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 6: 12% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 7: 12% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 8: 12% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 9: 11% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 10: 10% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 11: 8% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 12: 5% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 13: 2% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 14: 0% | St. Louis CITY SC, position 15: 0% |
| COL | Colorado Rapids, position 1: 0% | Colorado Rapids, position 2: 2% | Colorado Rapids, position 3: 3% | Colorado Rapids, position 4: 6% | Colorado Rapids, position 5: 8% | Colorado Rapids, position 6: 10% | Colorado Rapids, position 7: 11% | Colorado Rapids, position 8: 12% | Colorado Rapids, position 9: 12% | Colorado Rapids, position 10: 12% | Colorado Rapids, position 11: 11% | Colorado Rapids, position 12: 9% | Colorado Rapids, position 13: 5% | Colorado Rapids, position 14: 1% | Colorado Rapids, position 15: 0% |
| SD | San Diego FC, position 1: 0% | San Diego FC, position 2: 5% | San Diego FC, position 3: 9% | San Diego FC, position 4: 11% | San Diego FC, position 5: 12% | San Diego FC, position 6: 12% | San Diego FC, position 7: 12% | San Diego FC, position 8: 11% | San Diego FC, position 9: 9% | San Diego FC, position 10: 7% | San Diego FC, position 11: 5% | San Diego FC, position 12: 3% | San Diego FC, position 13: 2% | San Diego FC, position 14: 1% | San Diego FC, position 15: 0% |
| MIN | Minnesota United FC, position 1: 0% | Minnesota United FC, position 2: 2% | Minnesota United FC, position 3: 4% | Minnesota United FC, position 4: 6% | Minnesota United FC, position 5: 7% | Minnesota United FC, position 6: 9% | Minnesota United FC, position 7: 10% | Minnesota United FC, position 8: 12% | Minnesota United FC, position 9: 12% | Minnesota United FC, position 10: 12% | Minnesota United FC, position 11: 11% | Minnesota United FC, position 12: 9% | Minnesota United FC, position 13: 5% | Minnesota United FC, position 14: 1% | Minnesota United FC, position 15: 0% |
| RSL | Real Salt Lake, position 1: 0% | Real Salt Lake, position 2: 1% | Real Salt Lake, position 3: 2% | Real Salt Lake, position 4: 4% | Real Salt Lake, position 5: 5% | Real Salt Lake, position 6: 7% | Real Salt Lake, position 7: 8% | Real Salt Lake, position 8: 10% | Real Salt Lake, position 9: 11% | Real Salt Lake, position 10: 13% | Real Salt Lake, position 11: 13% | Real Salt Lake, position 12: 13% | Real Salt Lake, position 13: 8% | Real Salt Lake, position 14: 4% | Real Salt Lake, position 15: 0% |
| POR | Portland Timbers, position 1: 0% | Portland Timbers, position 2: 1% | Portland Timbers, position 3: 2% | Portland Timbers, position 4: 4% | Portland Timbers, position 5: 6% | Portland Timbers, position 6: 7% | Portland Timbers, position 7: 9% | Portland Timbers, position 8: 11% | Portland Timbers, position 9: 12% | Portland Timbers, position 10: 12% | Portland Timbers, position 11: 14% | Portland Timbers, position 12: 12% | Portland Timbers, position 13: 7% | Portland Timbers, position 14: 3% | Portland Timbers, position 15: 0% |
| SEA | Seattle Sounders FC, position 1: 0% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 2: 0% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 3: 1% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 4: 2% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 5: 3% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 6: 4% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 7: 7% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 8: 8% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 9: 10% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 10: 13% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 11: 15% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 12: 17% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 13: 13% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 14: 5% | Seattle Sounders FC, position 15: 0% |
| LA | LA Galaxy, position 1: 0% | LA Galaxy, position 2: 0% | LA Galaxy, position 3: 0% | LA Galaxy, position 4: 0% | LA Galaxy, position 5: 0% | LA Galaxy, position 6: 0% | LA Galaxy, position 7: 1% | LA Galaxy, position 8: 2% | LA Galaxy, position 9: 3% | LA Galaxy, position 10: 5% | LA Galaxy, position 11: 9% | LA Galaxy, position 12: 16% | LA Galaxy, position 13: 32% | LA Galaxy, position 14: 31% | LA Galaxy, position 15: 1% |
| ATX | Austin FC, position 1: 0% | Austin FC, position 2: 0% | Austin FC, position 3: 0% | Austin FC, position 4: 0% | Austin FC, position 5: 0% | Austin FC, position 6: 0% | Austin FC, position 7: 0% | Austin FC, position 8: 1% | Austin FC, position 9: 2% | Austin FC, position 10: 3% | Austin FC, position 11: 6% | Austin FC, position 12: 11% | Austin FC, position 13: 24% | Austin FC, position 14: 51% | Austin FC, position 15: 2% |
| SKC | Sporting Kansas City, position 1: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 2: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 3: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 4: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 5: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 6: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 7: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 8: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 9: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 10: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 11: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 12: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 13: 0% | Sporting Kansas City, position 14: 3% | Sporting Kansas City, position 15: 97% |
Read a row from left to right: how likely that team is to finish in each position. The colour says what the position is worth.
How this is calculated
Each team gets a strength from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, blended with last season, and then every remaining fixture is played out 20,000 times. The percentages are how often each finish came up.
These are simulated probabilities, not betting odds and not predictions of individual matches. A 5% chance still happens one season in twenty.