The Race
7 leagues, every team's chance of every final place, from 20,000 simulated seasons rerun on the live table.
Updated on 19 October 2026. Table and results from ESPN.
7Leagues
144Teams
869Matches played
20,000Simulations
Every league
Tightest title race right now: Premier League.
-
Premier League
England · 2026-27
- Leader
- Manchester City
- Title favourite
- Manchester City 47%
- Closest rival
- Arsenal, 28% chance
-
LaLiga
Spain · 2026-27
- Leader
- Barcelona
- Title favourite
- Barcelona 82%
- Closest rival
- Real Madrid, 12% chance
-
Serie A
Italy · 2026-27
- Leader
- Internazionale
- Title favourite
- Internazionale 48%
- Closest rival
- AS Roma, 27% chance
-
Bundesliga
Germany · 2026-27
- Leader
- Bayern Munich
- Title favourite
- Bayern Munich 74%
- Closest rival
- Borussia Dortmund, 14% chance
-
Ligue 1
France · 2026-27
- Leader
- Lyon
- Title favourite
- Paris Saint-Germain 39%
- Closest rival
- Lyon, 16% chance
-
Saudi Pro League
Saudi Arabia · 2026-27
- Leader
- Al Qadsiah
- Title favourite
- Al Hilal 54%
- Closest rival
- Al Nassr, 22% chance
-
MLS
United States · 2026 · Eastern Conference
- Leader
- Nashville SC
- Title favourite
- Nashville SC 100%
- Closest rival
- Inter Miami CF, 0% chance
How this is calculated
Each team gets a strength from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, blended with last season, and then every remaining fixture is played out 20,000 times. The percentages are how often each finish came up.
These are simulated probabilities, not betting odds and not predictions of individual matches. A 5% chance still happens one season in twenty.