The Race
7 leagues, every team's chance of every final place, from 20,000 simulated seasons rerun on the live table.
Updated on 2 September 2026. Table and results from ESPN.
7Leagues
144Teams
462Matches played
20,000Simulations
Every league
Tightest title race right now: Saudi Pro League.
-
Premier League
England · 2026-27
- Leader
- Manchester City
- Title favourite
- Arsenal 41%
- Closest rival
- Manchester City, 30% chance
-
LaLiga
Spain · 2026-27
- Leader
- Barcelona
- Title favourite
- Barcelona 55%
- Closest rival
- Real Madrid, 32% chance
-
Serie A
Italy · 2026-27
- Leader
- AS Roma
- Title favourite
- Internazionale 35%
- Closest rival
- AS Roma, 25% chance
-
Bundesliga
Germany · 2026-27
- Leader
- Bayern Munich
- Title favourite
- Bayern Munich 61%
- Closest rival
- Borussia Dortmund, 18% chance
-
Ligue 1
France · 2026-27
- Leader
- AS Monaco
- Title favourite
- Paris Saint-Germain 26%
- Closest rival
- Lens, 18% chance
-
Saudi Pro League
Saudi Arabia · 2026-27
- Leader
- Al Hilal
- Title favourite
- Al Hilal 45%
- Closest rival
- Al Nassr, 39% chance
-
MLS
United States · 2026 · Western Conference
- Leader
- Vancouver Whitecaps
- Title favourite
- Vancouver Whitecaps 95%
- Closest rival
- LAFC, 2% chance
How this is calculated
Each team gets a strength from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, blended with last season, and then every remaining fixture is played out 20,000 times. The percentages are how often each finish came up.
These are simulated probabilities, not betting odds and not predictions of individual matches. A 5% chance still happens one season in twenty.